Tropical disturbance may enter Gulf, add to local rain chances

Tropical disturbance may enter Gulf, add to local rain chances

This is a large complex of thunderstorms as of Sunday morning but looks like it will develop into a slightly more organized tropical system within the next few days.

Development chances will increase for the system to become the next depression or tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin after it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.

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In the past, the NHC could not issue watches or warnings without an advisory package and that advisory package could not be created without a tropical depression, storm, or hurricane. Notice how large the orange area of possible development is nearly the size of the entire Gulf of Mexico!

On the other hand, models don't have a good handle on where it'll go, and how much rain we get for the upcoming week ultimately depends on this system.

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Weather experts are monitoring an area of rain and clouds in the area of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula that has the potential to form. The strength of the system & positioning of two strong upper level high pressure areas will likely ultimately decide the path. Stay tuned to the forecast and our updates in the coming days. The disturbance will drift northwest and into the Gulf of Mexico around June 19-20.

The disturbance is forecast to keep heading west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour over the tropical Atlantic region over the next few days, according to weather authorities.

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During the beginning of the hurricane season, the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Atlantic - near the U.S. Eastern Seaboard - are the most favorable areas for tropical development.

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